InterRegional for Strategic Analysis

InterRegional for Strategic Analysis held a discussion panel about the future of US strategy in the Red Sea. Following US and UK strikes on Houthi militias in Yemen, the panel examined how Washington might proceed after the 2024 US presidential elections. The panel hosted David Des Roches, associate professor at the Near East South Asia Center for Strategy Studies, which operates under the US Department of Defense. Des Roches has also previously held various other positions in the same department, including NATO operations director and deputy director of peacekeeping.Major Shifts The main speaker on the panel indicated that Houthi capabilities have changed from previous years, and constitute a new and urgent threat that requires corresponding strategies. These threats can be summarized as follows:1. Houthi militias capable of manufacturing weapons locally: According to the main speaker, the Houthis are now manufacturing some weapons components and related technologies locally instead of receiving completed armaments from Iran. This marks a major development in their capacity to hide these components in electronic devices, such as televisions, computers, etc. It is difficult for the average inspector to distinguish which of the electric circuits in a device could be used to produce weapons.2. Houthi missiles equipped with optical sensors: The main speaker indicated that Houthi weapons, including drones and missiles, are equipped with optical sensors that enable them to maneuver and hide from defensive systems. This is due to their ability to flexibly change course depending on the obstacles they encounter, and also significantly bolsters their accuracy in striking targets.3. Use of commercially-available technologies and open-source data: The main speaker noted that Houthi attacks will continue because they are using commercially-available tools and technologies to manufacture drones. It is also very easy for the Houthis to produce airframes using materials such as surfboards. Information about the movement of ships is also readily available on the internet for anyone to access (in order to prevent ship accidents and collisions).4. Militia presents itself as an independent international actor: The main speaker suggested that the Houthi attacks are not connected to the war on Gaza, and that the Houthis are just trying to take advantage of current events to justify their attacks for political gain. However, Houthi militias are ultimately trying to demonstrate their military power and exert influence in the region. They hope to create the impression that they are a state like any other rather than a smaller actor. This is clear from the titles used by Houthi leaders. For example, their minister of defense refers to himself as the Yemeni minister of defense (rather than only naming the Houthis in the title).5. Expanding scope of Houthi militia targets: The main speaker on the panel indicated that since the Anglo-American strikes in the Red Sea began, Houthi militias have begun to target ships in other places such as the Gulf of Aden instead of just the southern Red Sea. The speaker indicated that the main reason for this was the Houthis’ desire to avoid US casualties, which could lead to incalculable escalation.According to the panel’s main speaker, Chinese interests have been significantly damaged by the Red Sea escalation. This is because most Chinese shipping passes through the Red Sea on its way to Europe. This comes amidst slowed domestic manufacturing in China. European markets have also been negatively affected because most of these Chinese exports reached Europe through the same shipping routes.Challenges for the USThe main speaker affirmed that there were many challenges related to how the US was dealing with the crisis, and regarding the effects of these strikes on Red Sea security. There are also potential repercussions for the US domestic sphere and voting patterns for the upcoming elections. These challenges can be summarized as follows:1. Limitations in targeting militias: The main speaker on the panel affirmed that the Houthis were a minority in Yemen but that most of them were concentrated in the city of Saada. He argued that attacks should therefore be focused on Saada, but have instead targeted other cities such as Taiz and al-Hudayda. This means that the Anglo-American attacks will be unable to effectively deter the Houthis, as the strikes will not target the Houthi political leadership, but only where their weapons are located.2. Intensifying operations creates pressure on US budget: The main speaker noted that having two US aircraft carriers in the Red Sea at the same time is unusual, and puts pressure on the US economy. The US has only 11 total aircraft carriers total, many of which are out of service or unfit for this kind of action. Washington also has security commitments in other areas of the world.3. Difficulty of continuing US attacks in the long term: The speaker indicated that it would be difficult for Washington to maintain a defensive policy in the long term. This is because any intentional or unintentional error could lead to attacks being launched and further escalation of the conflict. No party to the conflict wants escalation, especially the countries bordering the Red Sea, which have been hesitant to join this conflict.4. Some US actors do not see the region as a strategic priority: The speaker indicated that the Houthi attacks primarily threaten European and Chinese interests, and to a lesser extent the interests of Middle Eastern countries. The US does not consider this region to be a strategic priority. However, Washington could try to prolong unrest as part of a policy to force China to talk with Tehran and ask it to stop backing the Houthis due to negative impacts on Chinese economic interests.5. Biden’s popularity declines as party divisions widen: The main speaker indicated that according to public opinion polls conducted in late 2023, Biden’s job approval has fallen. In the Democratic party, support for Biden fell from almost 100 percent to 25 percent. This is consistent across all age groups within the party. With regard to Biden’s handling of the war in Gaza, opinion polls showed that a larger percent of Democrats ages 18 to 45 were dissatisfied with the president’s performance, as compared to the 45-65 or 65+ age brackets.6. Foreign policy a lower priority for US voters: The speaker on the panel indicated that US foreign policy was an important factor in choice of candidate for only a a small segment of US voters. A higher number of voters were concerned about foreign policy in Washington, D.C., Los Angeles, and New York. US voters also do not have many options with regards to candidate. They will try to pick the best option at the ballot box, but that does not necessarily mean that the candidate they choose would be their ideal choice.Policy ProposalsThe main speaker on the panel indicated that Middle East and Gulf countries have the opportunity to review some of their policies to better align with the emerging threats in the Red Sea, including with regard to the following:1. Need to diversify trade partners in the region: The main speaker indicated that Gulf countries need to review their policies regarding trade partners, and reconsider the commodities that they rely upon for exports. This is an important step to prevent market disruptions from negatively affecting their interests, and is not limited to the threat from Yemen, but also from rebel groups in Somalia and other active conflict zones. Long term plans to diversify commodities and partners should be developed.2. Rethinking other security cooperation agreements with Washington: The speaker noted that there had been a misunderstanding on the part of Gulf nations regarding Washington’s security commitments in the region. The US will not be able to deter the Houthis entirely or to make this happen before the upcoming US elections, since this would cause significant casualties. Furthermore, the US will not be able to become involved in wars in many places at the same time; it will provide arms and capabilities such as the Patriot air defense system, but it will not intervene directly in new conflicts.3. Using Gulf ties with China to pressure Iran: The main speaker indicated that Gulf countries have power and influence they can use to deter Iran from supporting the Houthis. This could entail halting oil exports to China, which would inevitably lead to China asking Iran to halt support for the Houthis to protect the former’s economic interests, since China is a key importer of Gulf oil.In conclusion, the main speaker on the panel highlighted the risks of continuing Houthi attacks in the Red Sea and the security and economic repercussions for countries in the region. He also outlined some of the gaps which make US strikes less effective. The speaker drew attention to the impacts of Houthi attacks on the US, the Middle East, and the Gulf, and suggested some policy approaches that could alleviate the crisis.

The Future of US Strategy in the Red Sea (Panel Discussion)