Dr. Yasmin Calmet

The recent elections in Venezuela have unveiled a pressing political scenario, sparking uncertainties about the country's future. This context underscores the urgent need to address issues related to the guarantee of human rights, particularly political and economic rights, and emphasizes the growing fragility in relations between countries in the Latin American region.The electoral process, held on July 28, was widely criticized for its chaotic nature and lack of transparency. The elections did not meet the expected standards of consolidated democracies, which require clean, transparent, fair processes with effective opposition participation. To understand this context, it is essential to remember that Venezuela is under an autocratic political system characterized by the concentration of power, restrictions on fundamental political rights, limitations on freedom of expression, and the absence of effective mechanisms for political influence. Additionally, Venezuela holds an alarming position in the global corruption ranking, being 177th, and faces an inflation rate of nearly 200% up to July this year. More than 30% of the population lives below the poverty line, which has led millions of Venezuelans to seek refuge in other countries in the region.The presidential election results have caused international discomfort due to preventing international observers—especially those invited by the opposition—from entering the country and the lack of transparency in counting voting records. In the first case, Maduro's government issued a decree closing the borders (air, land, and sea), claiming it was a measure for the safety and protection of the electoral event. However, this measure limited international participation in observing the proper conduct of the election. It violated the rights of Venezuelan citizens by preventing them from returning to the country and exercising their right to vote. The absence of international observers (whether neutral or opposition) negatively impacts the transparency of the electoral process and the legitimacy of the result, strengthening allegations of electoral fraud.Second, Venezuela grapples with the transparency of vote counting. It relies on the National Electoral Council (CNE) as the institution responsible for organizing the electoral process and providing the election results. However, there is a divergence between the results presented by the government and the opposition; the latter claims to have won the presidential election with 67% of the valid votes. The lack of publication of the records by the CNE, followed by the declaration of Maduro's victory for a third term, evidences its strong ties to Chavismo and the partiality of the institution. It is worth noting that weakened institutions generate distrust among citizens and, consequently, lead to the discrediting of democracy, strengthening autocracy and political corruption in the country.Given this, there are a number of scenarios that can be expected from a third term of Maduro. Firstly, greater instability and political repression. The persecution of those considered "enemies" of the State, the hegemony of the Chavista party, and the limited possibilities for public contestation increase the chances of eliminating the few remaining democratic traces in the country. It is common in authoritarian regimes to justify repressive actions in the name of democracy, freedom, and national security. Thus, any manifestation of political opposition or citizens against the government is seen as subversion, being dealt with violence and demobilization. After the election results, Maduro's government arrested 2,000 protesters accused of terrorism and detained Maria Oropeza, Edmundo González's electoral campaign manager, without any judicial justification.Secondly, there is a tendency to block any means of diplomacy and dialogue and weaken relations with some countries in the region, especially in South America. Leaders of Chile, Peru, Argentina, Ecuador, and Uruguay did not recognize the election results due to the lack of transparency in counting votes. In response, Maduro expelled the ambassadors of these countries and ordered the return of their own to Venezuela. This episode reveals a scenario of rupture and isolation that seriously harms political and economic relations, even with allies, complicating the prospects for resolving the crisis.Thirdly, the refusal to publish the records and Maduro's proclamation for a third term increased existing economic sanctions against Venezuela. These sanctions, implemented by the United States, affect the mining and oil sectors, directly impacting the economy, promoting the exodus of qualified labor, and aggravating multidimensional poverty—including income, access to essential services such as education and health, and food security.Last but not least, with increasing poverty and economic instability, there will inevitably be a second wave of mass migration to other countries in the region. This situation would further exacerbate the fragile political, financial, and social structure of neighboring countries, as well as encourage the creation of public migration and security policies to limit entry and promote the expulsion of Venezuelans. It is worth noting that the massive flow of Venezuelan migrants, especially in South America, has increased xenophobia and violent actions by the native population of these countries.In conclusion, it is essential to remember that in Latin America, authoritarian regimes tend to become more repressive when they perceive their imminent fall, creating defensive policies and structures to maintain power. Maduro's continued hold on power would intensify radicalization against the opposition, further closing off possibilities for political contestation and dialogue. Meanwhile, Maduro's isolation and non-compliance with international treaties wear down relations with neighboring countries and undermine the chances of any international recognition. This underscores the crucial role of international support and solidarity in bringing about positive change in Venezuela.

What Are the Political Consequences of Maduro's Third Term?