Dr. Yasmin Calmet

Latin America has begun 2025 with a political and economic landscape marked by uncertainties stemming from significant upheaval last year. Venezuela and Guyana’s territorial dispute over the Essequibo region escalated as Venezuelan troops mobilized toward the border, prompting Brazil to intervene to prevent a larger conflict. Meanwhile, the diplomatic crisis between Ecuador and Mexico following Ecuadorian police storming the Mexican embassy in Quito further contributed to regional instability. In July 2024, Venezuela’s elections were marred by allegations of fraud and repression, which led to widespread protests and drew international criticism.In this context of instability, the region faces interconnected geopolitical, democratic, and socioeconomic challenges. The intensifying rivalry between the United States and China is reshaping strategic and economic relationships in Latin America. Elections in politically fragile countries test democratic resilience, while poverty and unemployment remain high. These factors call for coordinated responses to promote regional stability and progress.In the geopolitical sphere, Latin America has historically been an area of interest for global powers since the region is rich in natural resources. For decades, the United States maintained a dominant economic presence in the region, exploiting raw materials to fuel its industrial growth. However, in recent years China has significantly expanded its investments in Latin America and has become one of the leading importers of commodities such as iron, aluminum, and tin, as well as manufactured goods. By 2024, China shifted its regional investments to strategic sectors, including critical minerals, technology, and renewable energy, challenging the traditional influence of the United States.China’s growing influence in the region is also evident through its investments in infrastructure. In Peru, the inauguration of &nbsp;Chancay Port megaproject in November 2024 symbolized China’s economic expansion in Latin America. While these investments have the potential to drive economic development, they also raise concerns about national sovereignty and economic dependence.This scenario has raised concerns in Washington, which perceives its hegemony as under threat. The possibility of a trade war between China and the US places Latin America in a delicate position, as countries in the region could be pressured to take sides or face economic retaliation. Moreover, the diversification of Chinese investments into sectors such as renewable energy and information technology reflects a long-term strategy to consolidate its presence in the region.In the democratic sphere, 2025 will be a pivotal year for Latin America, with presidential elections set to be held in Ecuador, Bolivia, Chile, Guyana, and Honduras. Despite their distinct political contexts, these nations face common challenges, including institutional instability, public insecurity, and high levels of corruption. Additionally, Mexico will mark a historic moment by holding its first direct judicial elections, which could redefine the country’s democratic foundations and balance of power.In Ecuador, presidential elections will be held on 9 February 2025, with a potential runoff on 13 April. Current President Daniel Noboa is seeking re-election following his 18-month transitional term and will face opponents including Luisa González from the Revolución Ciudadana party. Rising violence and authoritarian promises to restore order pose significant risks to democratic principles, and will make the upcoming election a critical test of Ecuador’s political stability.Bolivia is set to hold executive and legislative elections on 17 August with a potential runoff on 17 October. The political climate is tense and has been marked by internal disputes within the ruling MAS (Movement for Socialism) party between current President Luis Arce and former President Evo Morales. These tensions have raised questions about the party’s credibility as well as Morales’ intentions regarding power. Additionally, the ongoing political crises have led to numerous attempts by opposition groups to organize coups against the government.Honduras will hold two electoral processes this year: primary elections in March to select candidates for each party, followed by a general election on 30 November, when Hondurans will head to the polls to elect a new president.Chile is also set to hold presidential elections on 16 November 2025 with a potential runoff on 14 December. The current center-left president, Gabriel Boric, is not eligible for reelection and has yet to announce whom he will support, sparking speculation about potential candidates from his coalition. Former President Michelle Bachelet is one name that has been circulating, while José Antonio Kast, a far-right figure and defender of the Pinochet regime, has also emerged as a strong contender. Although Chile has maintained relative stability, polarized debates over social and economic reforms continue to divide society and will make these elections a crucial test of the country’s democratic maturity.Finally, the region faces significant socio-economic challenges. While poverty and unemployment levels have decreased, inequality remains a pressing concern. The UN Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (CEPAL) projects regional GDP growth of just 1.8 percent, reflecting structural problems such as low investment, stagnant productivity, and limited labor market expansion. This situation will compel regional governments to rethink strategies to enable economic growth and to develop efficient alternatives for redistributing income to the most vulnerable sectors.&nbsp;

How Will Latin America Navigate Its Political and Socioeconomic Landscape in 2025?