Dr. Muhammad Abbas Naji‏‏

Despite more than three months having passed since the crash of the helicopter carrying former Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi on May 19, 2024, which resulted in his death along with seven others, including former Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian, the debate surrounding the cause of the incident remains ongoing. This has prompted Iranian authorities to repeatedly affirm that the crash was due to bad weather conditions encountered by the helicopter while returning from East Azerbaijan Province. According to the final report issued by a special investigative body on September 1, 2024, a sudden appearance of a dense, rising fog in front of the helicopter led to its collision with a mountain, causing it to crash and the victims' bodies to burn.Multiple ConsiderationsThe insistence of Iranian authorities on reaffirming their previous narrative regarding the crash of Raisi’s helicopter can be explained by several considerations, the most prominent of which are:1- Reducing Pressure for an Iranian Response to Israel: The Iranian regime seems determined to rule out the possibility that Israel was involved in the downing of the helicopter. Many factions in Tehran continue to promote this idea. However, the regime, which remains hesitant to resolve the issue of a military response to Israel for the assassination of Hamas political bureau chief Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran on July 31, 2024, is keen to avoid further pressure to adopt this option. The regime now sees that such a response would impose a high cost that may not align with its current calculations and interests.It could be said that the Iranian regime is facing difficult choices in this regard. If it responds militarily, it may be subjected to a retaliatory strike that may not necessarily come from Israel alone. On the other hand, if it refrains from taking this option, it would contradict the loud threats that followed the assassination, which were summarized by Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's statement that "the response to the assassination of Haniyeh is an obligation on Iran."Thus, the regime has insisted that Israel had no role in the helicopter crash, so as not to add new pressures to the existing demands for a military strike on Tel Aviv after Hezbollah's attack on August 25, 2024, in retaliation for Israel’s assassination of senior Hezbollah military leader Fouad Shukr on July 30, 2024. Israel confirmed that it had launched a preemptive strike to neutralize its consequences.2- The General Staff's Efforts to Deny Negligence Accusations: It was notable that on August 20, 2024, Fars News Agency, which is affiliated with the Revolutionary Guards, published a report that implicitly criticized the Iranian army’s General Staff, which is responsible—according to reports—for securing the president's flights and visits. The report revealed that "contrary to safety protocols, the helicopter was carrying two extra passengers, which prevented it from reaching the required altitude, leading to its collision with the mountain." The General Staff, which was the first institution to form a committee to investigate the incident on May 20, 2024, intervened and dismissed the report, calling its claims baseless.This indicates that there may have been an attempt, possibly not far removed from the Revolutionary Guards, to blame the General Staff—and thus the Iranian army—for negligence that led to the catastrophic helicopter crash involving the president and his entourage. This is part of a broader rivalry between the two institutions, which has intensified in recent years, as seen in the efforts of both the Guards and the army to enhance their military capabilities. The growing discussions about Russia’s potential delivery of Su-35 fighter jets to Iran may have exacerbated this rivalry, especially given reports that the army is the entity slated to receive the jets.3- Dismissing the 'Internal Conspiracy' Hypothesis: Amid the severe crises Iran is facing both domestically and externally, some trends on social media and opposition-affiliated websites have claimed that the possibility of internal sabotage cannot be ruled out. Specifically, it was suggested that elements within the regime who stood to benefit from removing former President Ebrahim Raisi from the political scene might have been involved, particularly given the important milestones ahead for Iran, such as the selection of a successor to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.Among these claims was the involvement of Mojtaba Khamenei, the Supreme Leader's son, in the downing of the helicopter, due to the rivalry reportedly being promoted between him and Raisi over who would succeed the current leader. Raisi’s esteemed political and religious standing was seen as potentially diminishing Mojtaba's chances of inheriting his father's position.Regardless of the accuracy of this narrative, it has become part of the ongoing public debate in Iran over the past three months. Discussions about Khamenei's successor are a constant topic in Iran, particularly given his advanced age and previous diagnosis of prostate cancer. Therefore, the regime’s quick reaffirmation that the helicopter crashed due to weather factors can be seen, in part, as an attempt to dispel this hypothesis, which could have sparked crises within the regime’s institutions, given the existing tensions over power and interests.4- Promoting the Importance of Lifting Western Sanctions on Tehran: The release of the final report by the investigative committee on Raisi’s helicopter crash came at a convenient time for new Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi. They have stated that lifting U.S. sanctions on Iran will be a top priority over the next four years, given the negative consequences these sanctions have had across various sectors in Iran, particularly the severely deteriorating civil aviation sector due to the inability to secure necessary spare parts for aircraft maintenance, which has been a major cause of civilian air accidents, including the helicopter crash involving the president during his visit to East Azerbaijan Province.This means that the president and his administration will likely use this report to bolster their moves to renew negotiations with Western countries, particularly the U.S., over the nuclear agreement, aiming to reach a new deal that addresses the current flaws and paves the way for lifting most U.S. sanctions, especially those related to oil exports and the use of the SWIFT financial system.Conspiracy TheoryIn light of all this, it can be said that conspiracy theories will remain one of the main drivers of increasing debate within Iran in the coming period. This is primarily due to the worsening crises the regime faces both domestically and internationally. On the domestic front, the election of President Masoud Pezeshkian has not reduced tensions between the regime and the public, particularly as the regime continues to impose strict social restrictions. The president himself has come under severe criticism for his stance on certain issues, notably the hijab issue. Moreover, there seem to be disagreements within the regime's institutions not only over the issue of Khamenei's successor but also over the nature and extent of a military response to Israel.On the external front, tensions with Western countries are gradually escalating over several issues, including Iran's military support for Russia, the escalation of nuclear activities, and Iranian interventions in regional crises. Meanwhile, the likelihood of Iran becoming involved in a direct military confrontation with Israel is increasing, as a potential repercussion of Israel's war in Gaza, which began on October 7, 2023. This is happening alongside the erosion of the regional deterrence Iran has worked to build over the past 45 years, due to Israeli strikes and breaches, as well as the U.S. military buildup near Iran's borders.

Why Does the Raisi Crash Controversy Persist?