InterRegional for Strategic Analysis

Interregional for Strategic Analysis held a panel discussion session titled "Restoring Influence: The Future of French Policy Towards the Middle East," featuring Camille Lons, Deputy Head of the Paris Office and Middle East and North Africa Policy Fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR). The session explored the key determinants and features of French foreign policy toward the Middle East, the main tools Paris employs in its relations with the region, and the significant challenges that hinder the effectiveness of French foreign policy.Key DeterminantsSeveral determinants that play a crucial role in shaping French foreign policy toward the region:1- Geographical Impact on France's Middle East Policy: Lons emphasized the importance of geography as a key determinant of French foreign policy towards the Middle East, noting that the proximity between France and the region means that crises in the Middle East directly impact French interests and national security. She highlighted that this proximity strengthens mutual ties but also negatively affects French public opinion and leaders, particularly as some regional conflicts directly influence French national security, such as waves of illegal immigration and asylum seekers into Europe.2- Cultural and Historical Ties: Lons pointed to the significant role that historical and cultural connections play in French foreign policy toward the region. Many French citizens have roots in the Middle East, particularly in the Maghreb. Additionally, many French citizens live in the region's diaspora.3- Negative Perception of French presence in the region: A large portion of the French public does not hold positive views of the Middle East, especially in light of the rise of far-right and populist parties that adopt an anti-Islam stance, which reinforces negative stereotypes about the region among French people, especially those with no direct ties to the Middle East.4- Immigration and Terrorism as Key Issues in France’s Middle East Policy: The rise of far-right movements since 2015, particularly after terrorist attacks on "Charlie Hebdo" and "Bataclan," has profoundly influenced political discourse in France on issues related to its foreign policy toward the region, such as immigration and terrorism. The immigration issue has been a significant driver for France to sign many agreements with Middle Eastern countries to curb illegal migration flows to Europe.Multiple ObjectivesThere are several underlying motivations behind France's efforts to engage with the Middle East, that can be summarized as follows:1- Macron's Efforts to Strengthen France's International Presence: French President Emmanuel Macron has become more inclined to assert France's presence on the international stage, including in the Middle East, as part of his broader foreign policy agenda. This change is driven by various factors, including the rise of the far right and the need to adopt a strong political stance against populism by focusing on French interests abroad.2- Compensating for Diminished French Influence in Africa: France’s engagement in the Middle East is part of a compensatory strategy in response to the decline in French influence in Africa. For example, Macron’s attempts to address historical grievances with Algeria have largely failed, and France’s military withdrawal from the Sahel region coincided with Russia's rising influence there, prompting Paris to seek new partners to regain its presence in the region.3- Balancing Russian and Chinese Influence in the Region: France aims to counter the growing influence of China and Russia in the Middle East, which Paris views as a significant challenge to its interests. China has become a major economic player in the region and has played a vital role in facilitating diplomatic agreements, such as the one between Saudi Arabia and Iran. Meanwhile, Russia has filled the security void left by France’s withdrawal from the Sahel and has had a significant presence in regional conflicts.4- Strengthening Relations with Emerging Powers in the Region: France's awareness of the increasing influence of emerging powers in the Middle East on the international stage, recognizing their potential as key connectors between Western countries and the Global South.5- Enhancing Economic Ties with Arab Countries: Deep economic and trade relations between France and the Middle East drive French foreign policy toward the region. She pointed out that energy supplies from the Gulf, in particular, are vital to the French economy, along with the extensive trade between France and these countries.Tools of InfluenceThere are some various mechanisms and tools France uses to exert influence in the Middle East:1- France’s Use of Summit Diplomacy in the Middle East: France has tried to play an active role in the Middle East by hosting and participating in diplomatic summits. For example, between 2021 and 2022, Paris sought to resolve the political stalemate in Iraq. Macron has adopted a "filling the vacuum" strategy, especially after the Beirut port explosion, by seizing opportunities to assert France’s influence, although these efforts have faced challenges due to a lack of long-term vision, as evidenced by the ongoing political crisis in Lebanon.2- Leveraging French Arms Exports to the Region: France’s advanced defense technology, which exceeds its domestic needs, is a significant export to the Middle East, making it one of the key tools of French influence. These arms exports have enabled France to establish long-term partnerships with various regional countries, including major arms importers like Egypt.3- Combating Illegal Immigration in the Middle East: France prioritizes preventing illegal immigration from the Middle East and North Africa. To address this, France engages in security operations in the region as a proactive approach to mitigate the threats posed by illegal immigration. This includes contributing to efforts to stabilize the region, supporting good governance, and providing aid through French development agencies like the French Development Agency (AFD) to prevent the escalation of crises that lead to migration flows to Europe.In conclusion, the challenges facing French foreign policy in the Middle East, notably the differences between French and American positions on specific regional issues. France has often sought to express a somewhat distinct voice from the U.S., a policy that was particularly evident during the Trump administration and has continued under Macron’s "European strategic autonomy" approach. Although this policy has become less prominent under the Biden administration, it still manifests in certain strategic issues where Paris seeks to maintain a stance different from Washington's.Divergent European interests in the Middle East significantly influence France's policy toward the region. For example, Italy is motivated by the need to address migration, while Germany focuses on energy cooperation, particularly renewable energy and oil and gas imports. Meanwhile, France seeks to strengthen its ties with North African countries.

The Future of French Policy Towards the Middle East (Panel Discussion)