Nahla Abdel Monem

Ten years after ISIS declared its caliphate, questions abound regarding whether the group might be able to rebuild its influence in Iraq. This is of particular concern in light of political and security developments in the region, and divergent assessments of escalating militant activity in Iraq. On 10 June 2024, Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia‘ al-Sudani stated that terrorism no longer poses a threat to the country and praised the concerted efforts of the people and army to eliminate ISIS factions. This should be understood in the context of the Iraqi government’s desire for the Global Coalition to Defeat ISIS to withdraw from Iraq. Meanwhile, ISIS has recently released intensive media content on attacks it carried out targeting the Iraqi army and pro-Iranian brigades in Iraq.Signs of DangerIn order to understand the key dimensions of the political and security situation in Iraq today and the extent to which these shape ISIS’s chances of rebuilding, we might consider the following points:1.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;The ongoing problem of foreign ISIS fighters in camps and prisons: The persistence of camps belonging to ISIS factions in the region poses a security challenge for the Iraqi authorities. This is why the government has called on the relevant countries to take responsibility and retrieve their citizens to resolve the issue. On 10 May 2024, Iraqi National Security Advisor Qasim al-Araji called on countries with nationals in the detention camps to take back their citizens. He indicated that al-Hol Camp, which is located on the border with Syria, contains prisoners from 60 different nationalities, but that only 24 countries have begun taking back their nationals.Many EU countries have stated that they are still hesitant to take back ISIS fighters from camps in the Middle East for security reasons. This complicates the situation and obstructs efforts to dismantle these dangerous camps.2.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;ISIS detainees hold takfiri views: The persistence of the camps imposes further burdens on political decision makers in Iraq because some detainees follow ISIS’s takfiri ideology, i.e., declaring other Muslims to be apostates. News coverage of some of the camps has indicated that some detainees, especially youth and women, hold violent beliefs that are part of the group’s ideological strategy to expand its influence in the region. The growth of violence among youth and camp detainees in general threatens security, particularly regarding any disruption in surveillance procedures.There is also still the potential that individuals in the camps could be running secret cells in the region as long as detainees maintain their convictions in ISIS ideology. In August 2022, forces arrested 27 terrorists in al-Hol Camp who were suspected of masterminding terrorist attacks in the region.3.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;ISIS ramps up recruiting in Iraq using the Gaza war: ISIS has recently stepped up its media activity by taking advantage of the current state of affairs, especially the Gaza war. ISIS has tried to exploit the war for recruiting purposes by using it as a form of propaganda to incite members to expand activities in hopes of bolstering their influence. Given that Iraq is among the countries in the Arab world that have been most affected by the regional repercussions of the war between Hamas and Israel, ISIS is trying to make strides through mobilizing propaganda to serve its aims.On 28 March 2024, ten years after ISIS’s founding, the group issued a video clip in which the official spokesperson Abu Hudhayfah al-Ansari claimed that ISIS was still involved in Mosul and that its reach extended through Iraq and the Levant. He called on the group’s followers to liberate detainees in order to strengthen ISIS’s influence; this poses a threat given the dozens of detainees in Syria and Iraq.4.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Iranian-backed militias erode security: Pro-Iranian brigades have launched attacks on US forces in the global coalition, which led Washington to pursue military intervention against these militias without coordinating with Baghdad. Washington’s actions subsequently led to a dispute between the US and Iraqi governments that heightened the latter’s calls for the withdrawal of the global coalition. These factors have led to growing security concerns about the extent to which the Iraqi government has control over the situation, and whether it is capable of maintaining internal stability as per its national action plan.5.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Rivalries between ISIS and Iranian-backed militias: The rivalries between armed groups remain a decisive factor in shaping mobilization and geographic scope. With media propaganda focused on Iranian militia activity in the region, ISIS aims to send a message that the group defends Muslims, while (according to ISIS) Tehran pursues its own non-Islamic agenda. It is likely that this claim will shape ISIS’s influence in the region.6.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;ISIS has secret enclaves in some areas: ISIS has recently carried out operations including an attack on a military checkpoint in the Saladin Governorate in mid-May 2024 that killed five army personnel. This indicates that ISIS possesses secret enclaves in some areas of Iraq, and will complicate tracking and security surveillance efforts amidst ongoing ideological mobilization.7.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Expanding networks of private funding: ISIS has major subbranches across different regions including Africa. These branches provide a funding network that enables the group to bolster its influence in fragile regions. Its followers have also exploited certain European sites to carry out suspicious money transfers to secret enclaves in Iraq and the Levant. On 10 June 2024, Turkish forces arrested 11 people on charges of providing funds to ISIS in conflict zones.8.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Effects of regional conflict over Kurds: The regional conflict about the Kurds is a key factor shaping ISIS’s potential influence in the region. After the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) took control of al-Hol Camp near the Iraqi border, any escalation from regional governments in Iraq, Turkey, or Iran against the Kurds could lead to unrest that would threaten security control over areas with ISIS detainees. The issue of ISIS camps could become a political bargaining chip in regional conflicts.9.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Fluid security situation for some of Iraq’s neighbors: Iraq is facing a crisis in maintaining security at its national borders due to the volatility of some neighboring areas as well as impacts from conflicts such as in Syria. Iran also wants to remain involved with its militias across the Shi‘ite Crescent.Potential for ConfrontationDespite the challenges that Iraq faces, it is still possible that it could thwart ISIS’s attempts to reestablish itself, including through the following approaches:1.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Eliminate terrorism camps: Iraq and Syria will both need more international cooperation to eliminate the ISIS camps in their territory so that these do not create an additional burden for the security apparatus in light of nearby political conflicts. The situation will require Western governments to take their nationals back home, either after holding trials or offering social reintegration programs to reduce security pressures on the Middle East.2.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Implement a legal structure that can absorb emerging challenges: Iraq needs to create litigation procedures that can keep up with emerging challenges on this issue and address the various impediments to holding fair trials and thorough legal proceedings for those implicated in ISIS crimes during the group’s control of the region. This would facilitate efforts to eliminate camps and address the recent UN report on ISIS crimes. On 6 June 2024, the UN issued a statement indicating that it had handed over 28 terabytes of data to the ambassadors of UN Security Council member states detailing the war crimes and genocide that ISIS committed in Iraq. The final results of the report will be given to country-level authorities, so any legal and judicial improvements will have positive impacts on being able to reap the benefits of the other steps that have been taken.3.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Adhere to the national plan for Iraqi affairs: Iraqi institutions need to stick to national objectives when dealing with critical issues and find a way to get forces to rally behind these goals despite ethnic and sectarian differences. There is also a need to curtail political money.4.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Curtail flows of arms and funding for terrorism: Stopping the flow of arms and suspicious funds to ISIS is linked to curtailing the activities of armed groups in Iraq, regardless of the groups’ affiliations. Limiting carrying of arms to state authorities will also provide security, reduce unrest, and mitigate critical issues in Iraq.Future ScenariosIn conclusion, there are various scenarios that could affect whether ISIS will expand in Iraq. These questions include whether the government is able to secure the withdrawal of global coalition forces before establishing firm plans for the local security agencies so that the state can exert control on the ground and through intelligence in a very politically polarized space. This is especially important given extensive regional conflicts and fragile border areas affected by these disputes. However, the danger that ISIS poses to forces active in the region, such as Iran, Syria, and Russia, could also bolster efforts to curtail the group’s activities due to fear of an ISIS resurgence. ISIS camps in the region still have not been eliminated and remain a political tool that can be manipulated by various interests.

Could ISIS Rebuild its Influence in Iraq?