Dr. Yasmin Calmet

From1980 to 2000, Ecuador was seen as South America’s "island of peace," seemingly immune to the armed conflict that beset neighboring Peru and Colombia. However, in recent years, violence in Ecuador intensified and became a latent problem for the country. Ecuador is now facing its biggest security crisis to date amidst widespread violence from organized crime. This situation has called into question Ecuador’s capacity to manage and resolve the conflict, and put Latin America on alert about the potential impact that drug trafficking violence could have on other countries in the region.On 9 January, Ecuador’s largest organized crime syndicate, Los Choneros, carried out a series of armed attacks. They stormed the state-owned TC Televisión network and a university in Guayaquil, putting people’s physical safety at risk. The actions of criminal gangs, especially Los Choneros, Los Lobos and Los Tiguerones, are coordinated from prisons in collusion with prison officials. These gangs have transformed the country into a key storage, processing, and distribution center for illicit drugs. Ecuador now has one of the highest rates of violence in Latin America.According to Ecuador’s National Institute of Statistics and Census (INEC), the homicide rate was around 15 per 100,000 from 2000 to 2010. Homicides consistently declined from 2010 to 2016 and fell to 5.8 per 100,000. However, the rate began to climb again after 2019, and has increased over the last three years. Between 2021 and 2022, homicides jumped from 14.1 to 26.2 per 100,000. Data from 2023 indicate an even more alarming scenario for public security with 46 homicides per 100,000.This data highlight two important points regarding the rising violence in Ecuador. First, the Lasso government (2021-2023) proved unable to establish security measures and efficient public policies to contain the political and social power of drug trafficking groups. Lasso fell short in ensuring the safety of citizens, who became targets of car bombs, shootings, and kidnappings in Ecuador’s major cities. Second, US efforts to implement policies to combat drug trafficking in Colombia and Mexico contributed to trafficking routes shifting to Ecuador, which has experienced a rise in organized crime and violence.Drug traffickers have become the main challenge to the Ecuadorian government. Trafficking groups have a well-organized structure and have formed alliances with foreign organizations such as Mexico’s Sinaloa Cartel. They intend to become so firmly established that they control the Ecuadorian state and can operate without interference. The aforementioned three criminal organizations have therefore stopped fighting each other and banded together against their common enemy: the state of Ecuador. The gangs hope they will be successful in their attempts to take control of the country’s public sector.Ecuador’s Noboa government, which was elected in October 2023, decided to ramp up efforts against organized crime and launched Plan Fénix (the Phoenix Plan). This involved the army and police carrying out joint actions in the streets and prisons, in addition to asking the US for intelligence support. However, this only made the situation worse and prompted immediate pushback from organized crime groups. The leader of Los Choneros escaped from prison as violence intensified in key cities such as Quito and Guayaquil, which led to widespread chaos throughout the country.In response, Noboa declared a 60-day state of emergency and a state of internal armed conflict against these groups. Under this state of exception, drug trafficking groups are given belligerent status, which enables the armed forces to carry out operations against them and to restrict the right of movement. A nationwide curfew has been imposed from 11pm to 5 am. The state has also curtailed freedom of assembly and restricted the right to privacy of the home and of correspondence. Armed conflict intensifies these restrictions, and Ecuador is experiencing a prolonged armed confrontation between the state and organized armed groups, which it categorizes as terrorists.However, these dynamics in Ecuador could have political, social, and economic repercussions across the region. Noboa has followed in Lasso’s footsteps and adopted a hard line to control violence. For Ecuador’s president, the security challenges are serious enough to require an immediate and forceful response to the crisis. Still, violence as a political phenomenon cannot be entirely resolved by such short-term policies, which tend to only exacerbate political instability.The armed conflict in Ecuador could affect the region in several different ways. It could encourage drug trafficking groups and organized crime organizations in countries such as Mexico, Colombia, Guatemala, and Peru to establish alliances for joint attacks against states in the region. Such coordination among groups would facilitate weapon sales and escape routes for criminals, and enable traffickers to evade areas monitored by the state. The crisis in Ecuador also threatens economic stability, since a region vulnerable to violence is less attractive for investment in technologies and social projects. Violence in Ecuador also could contribute to rising regional political instability and violence, which in turn could undermine democracy and exacerbate the migration crisis as people leave for "safer" places. The history of armed conflict in Latin America suggests a strong potential for increased human rights violations in times of crisis, especially for vulnerable groups such as women and children. This situation could also embolden potential authoritarian leaders and weaken public institutions.&nbsp;

What Are the Dimensions of Ecuador’s Increasing Organized Crime?