Dr Hamdy Abdelrahman Hassan

The electoral commission’s announcement of the results of the elections held in South Africa on 29 May 2024 signaled a political earthquake and a defining moment in the country’s political history. Voter turnout was at a very low level of 58%, reflecting dissatisfaction with government policies that, since 2008, have led to increased poverty, inequality, and unemployment. However, the strong showing of former President Jacob Zuma’s uMkhonto weSizwe party, often referred to as the MK—which won 14% of the total national vote and 45% of the vote in its electoral stronghold of KwaZulu-Natal province—challenged most of the prevailing political analysis in South Africa.Zuma’s new party, which means "Spear of the Nation"—named after the old armed wing of the African National Congress (ANC)—shows how Zuma, 82, is exploiting the legacy of the militant past to rally the support of South Africans against the ruling party, which Zuma himself once claimed would rule the country until "Jesus returns."Despite the obstacles placed before him, Zuma became the winning ticket in the elections of the most advanced country in Africa, six years after his resignation from the presidency of South Africa amid an atmosphere of political uncertainty. Although his party was formed just six months ago, it was able to drain significant support from the ANC, which has already faced its toughest test. Zuma’s credentials—as a companion of Nelson Mandela in prison and in his struggle in the anti-apartheid movement—held special resonance in his home province of KwaZulu-Natal.In 2021, Jacob Zuma went to prison, after refusing to testify in an inquiry into charges of government corruption while he was president, from 2009 to 2018. Furthermore, the constitutional court ruled him ineligible to run for election last May, which he considered part of the ruling party’s and the judiciary’s grudge against him. The constitution allows no one to run for election who has been imprisoned for a period of 12 months or more without the option of a fine. Zuma and his new party are using populist rhetoric to stir up the feelings of young people who do not remember the policies of apartheid. Thus, we see him using the same slogan as the ANC’s old military wing and making promises of job opportunities, free education, and better healthcare for the young people who make up the majority of the country’s population and have many grievances due to deep, persistent inequality. Zuma claims to be the true heir of the ANC and more dedicated to helping South Africa’s poor black majority. &nbsp;Stability ConundrumThe return of Zuma’s party puts South Africa’s future political stability at stake due to President Zuma’s militant legacy and the ethnic factor at play in his home base in Zulu country, as evident in the increased support for the MK at the expense of the ANC. At the same time, the Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP), with its policy of Zulu nationalism, increased its share to 17 seats, indicating that simplistic views on race do not necessarily affect political loyalty. If Zuma’s party is excluded from any political alliance, this could have political consequences, as KwaZulu-Natal may become ungovernable. This may recall the widespread looting and rioting that erupted in July 2021, after Zuma’s imprisonment. On the other hand, Zulu province suffers from the challenges of crime and nepotism, especially in the taxicab industry and land management, which forms part of the Ingonyama Trust created in 1994. The trust, of which the Zulu king is the sole trustee, controls about 30% of the province’s territory, with no transparency. A bitter feud within the Zulu royal family led to Ramaphosa crowning Prince Misuzulu as Zulu king last year. However, the supreme court in Pretoria nullified this on procedural grounds and ordered an investigation into the objections of the king’s half-brother, Prince Simakade Zulu, who claims to be the rightful heir. The ruling remains under appeal. Furthermore, the combination of tribalism with a political party accused of corruption, theft of national resources, and the intent to evade justice may affect the country’s reputation and political stability.Development DilemmaThere is no question that any political alliance with Zuma’s party, alone or with the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) party, led by Julius Malema—whose populist rhetoric calls for his assumption of the financial portfolio—may provide stability. But it will also adversely affect the country’s development process. Confidence in the economy and direct foreign investment will likely decrease, and outcomes associated with the rule of law will decline, which means impunity. In this situation, to promote the development option and complete President Ramaphosa’s path, two main options can be envisioned to stabilize KwaZulu-Natal, Gauteng, and the Western Cape, which form the economic and demographic heart of South Africa.First scenario: A three-way alliance between the ANC, the Democratic Alliance (DA), and the IFP, representing the Zulu. The DA presents itself as a leader of business and free market economies, and it favors the repeal of some of the ANC’s pioneering black empowerment measures, which the DA claims have not been successful. The DA is often accused of representing the interests of the privileged white minority, though it rejects this description, saying that good governance benefits all South Africans. There is the possibility of forming a minority government under the ANC, with support from the DA and the IFP in exchange for their participation in some executive positions and leaving the presidency of the parliament and some important committees to the DA. In this scenario, an ANC government would clinch the necessary support for important votes, such as the budget or any votes of confidence, in exchange for political concessions and participation in the legislative process.Second scenario: The formation of a national unity government represents a third way that includes the ANC, DA, MK, IFP, and EFF. In this scenario, Gauteng province could be effectively administered by a DA-led coalition, while KwaZulu-Natal would be run by a coalition led by Zuma’s party. However, this option may involve the risk of instability and collapse, or the withdrawal of one or more parties, leaving the ANC in a coalition with the EFF and Zuma’s party. The DA has described such an alliance as a "doomsday scenario" that would be seen as a cause of grave concern for financial markets and foreign investors. The EFF, led by Julius Malema, the controversial former leader of the ANC Youth League who split from the party, is known for nationalizing mines and banks and seizing land from white farmers for redistribution to black farmers.In either scenario, the new parliament must convene by 16 June 2024, and its first order of business will be to select the country’s president. Under the current situation, it seems likely that the current president, Cyril Ramaphosa, will be the favorite, although he may be pressured to resign or prepare for his successor, given the ANC’s weak showing in the latest elections. In all cases, the return of Jacob Zuma and his Spear of the Nation constitutes a political opponent to the ruling party and a difficult element in the power equation in the upcoming period in South Africa. This will affect South Africa’s future trends toward stability and development, especially since it will assume the presidency of the G20.

South Africa and the Duality of Stability and Development