Dr. Ahmed Askar‏‏

On 1 January 2024, the Independent National Electoral Commission of the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) announced that incumbent President Felix Tshisekedi won a second term, according to preliminary election results. Nineteen candidates competed in the elections, held over two days starting on 20 December and extended for a third day due to logistical challenges that hindered the electoral process in some areas. Tshisekedi received more than 13 million votes, or 73.34% of votes cast in the election, which saw a turnout of 43% of the 44 million eligible voters in the country of more than 111 million people. The election results point to signs of a new phase of political and security unrest and tensions, which have accompanied most presidential elections in the DRC since its independence in 1960, heightening fears that the country could enter a political crisis in the coming period. This possibility is strengthened by the opposition’s stance in rejection of the presidential elections and their results due to practices they allege the ruling regime was involved in during the electoral process. This threatens the future of the country, which is already suffering from years of security and economic crises, with a worse situation in the coming period. Political ClashThe overall context of the Congolese political scene points to the possibility of a worsening political crisis due to escalation by political parties in the wake of the elections. The main indicators of domestic tension are:1. Doubts over the integrity of the electoral process: Before the latest elections, the opposition accused the Tshisekedi regime of trying to manipulate the elections and their results. Opposition leaders cited the partiality of institutions overseeing the elections, headed by loyalists, such as the Independent National Electoral Commission headed by Denis Kadima. Kadima is a close ally of the president and belongs to his Luba ethnic group. Some violations also marred the voting process during and before the elections. These included irregularities in the voter registration process, which heightened the opposition’s fears of election fraud. Some voter cards were not usable, and the registration of a number of citizens in areas considered opposition strongholds were ignored. These include Kivu and Ituri provinces in the country’s east, which are experiencing rising security tensions. The start of voting was delayed in one third of polling stations in various parts of the country, as was the delivery of materials necessary for the electoral process, and some devices malfunctioned. The extension of the voting period for an additional day was unconstitutional, according to the opposition, which it believes constitutes a sufficient basis for repeating the elections. The opposition also accuses the electoral commission of not fulling collecting the results in accordance with the elections law. While the head of the electoral commission acknowledged there were some irregularities during the electoral process, he insisted that the results reflect the will of the Congolese people. 2. Increasing financial burdens of elections: These burdens are putting pressure on the state’s budget amid economic challenges in the DRC, reflected in the poor living conditions of large sectors of the country’s citizens. Reports have indicated that holding the elections cost more than one billion dollars, which entails an expansion of the country’s fiscal deficit this year. Foreign exchange pressures caused by increased spending on security and pre-election arrangements have resulted in the Congolese franc falling by 20% against the US dollar, boosting public discontent with the ruling regime.&nbsp;3. Tshisekedi supporters ignoring internal divisions: Supporters of President Tshisekedi took to the streets of the capital to celebrate him winning a second term, amid a split in the Congolese public between supporters and opponents of the election results. This comes as Tshisekedi has pledged to address all the challenges facing the DRC during his second term. He said this was necessary to consolidate what he described as achievements, despite differing opinions about the outcome of his achievements during his first term, which began in 2019. 4. Opposition rejecting election results: Most political opposition candidates anticipated the preliminary results of the election, and announced in a joint statement that they rejected the election and its results, which they described as a hoax. They called for new elections to be held by a new electoral commission on a date agreed upon by all. This points to the potential for a severe political crisis to erupt, as the losing candidates and their supporters do not accept the results of the elections. &nbsp;5. Mobilizing public opinion to demonstrate against the election results: The political opposition escalated its stance towards what it called election fraud by calling for mass demonstrations. These led to clashes breaking out between security forces and some opposition candidate supporters. Security forces surrounded Martin Fayulu’s supporters around his electoral headquarters and fired tear gas in an attempt to disperse them. Army troops were also deployed in various parts of the capital Kinshasa to prevent any unrest. Authorities banned a march called for by five losing candidates to protest the elections, which the government called an attempt to undermine the electoral commission’s work to tabulate the final results. The presidential candidates signed a code of conduct in November 2023, before the launch of official election campaigns, which included a stipulation to combat all forms of violence accompanying the electoral process. 6. Holding elections in conjunction with growing domestic challenges: The recent elections came in a complex domestic context, in light of economic and security challenges, widespread corruption, and involvement in complex regional tensions. The eastern DRC continues to pose a security challenge to the Congolese government, given the activity of more than 120 armed rebel movements, as well as ISIS-DRC, which is active around the Great Lakes. This negatively affects the future stability and security of the DRC. Current ConcernsTensions accompanying the latest presidential elections open the door to a number of potential domestic and international repercussions for the DRC:1. Escalation of violence in the country: The opposition could call on its supporters to expand protests against the election results throughout the country. Protests could meet with increased repression by security authorities to quell demonstrations, boosting the state of uncertainty in the country’s political scene. This may mean a large-scale campaign of arrests, and possible deaths among demonstrators, deepening the country’s political crisis.2. Opposition turning to the judiciary: The opposition could take another path, challenging the election results at the Constitutional Court—despite the low confidence of a large sector of the country in the independence of state institutions. One opposition who lost the presidential race announced he would not file a legal challenge for this same reason. However, the Constitutional Court is expected to approve the election results and reject opposition appeals, which could further strengthen public discontent with state institutions. 3. Crisis of legitimacy for the Tshisekedi regime: The political crisis in Kinshasa could lead large sectors of Congolese society—impacted by worsening economic and security crises—to join the ranks of the opposition. This could affect the political legitimacy of the ruling regime in the country, and place more challenges before it in the coming period. 4. Weak trust in democracy: The opposition is strengthening its efforts to expose the series of electoral violations they allege the ruling regime was involved in to ensure its candidate won a second term. This could further erode citizens’ trust in the democratic process and the peaceful transition of power. It could drive acts of violence to change the status quo by force, threatening the security and stability of the DRC in the foreseeable future. 5. Worsening security in the east: The Congolese government’s interest in quelling the political crisis at home could distract it from confronting security threats in the country’s east. This could present an opportunity for armed movements and terrorist organizations to expand the violence they are involved in there. Their activity could extend deep into the DRC, as well as the surrounding region.6. Escalating regional tension: Some regional neighbors benefit from the tense political and security situation in the DRC. Estimates indicate that Rwanda prefers chaos within the DRC in order to continue to plunder the country’s resources—illegally, as Kinshasa alleges. Angola, meanwhile, wants to continue to illegally extract oil from Congolese waters, despite the two countries signing an agreement in July 2023 to jointly benefit from the oil. Hence, political tension between Rwanda and the DRC is likely to escalate, especially as Tshisekedi accuses it of involvement in supporting armed groups in the east. Before the elections, he pledged to announce a war on these groups, though some acknowledge that these were political statements aimed at stirring up nationalist sentiments and rallying supporters in the electoral race. President Tshisekedi is also expected to enter into serious negotiations with Angola to settle the oil crisis. Should these fail, he may begin a new political battle with it, increasing regional tension in central and western Africa. 7. Possible foreign intervention: Some international actors—especially the United States and China—may find in the DRC’s political and security crisis an opportunity to get involved to control the country’s mineral wealth and natural resources, especially cobalt. This could increase international competition and be accompanied by the militarization of the region, including the DRC. In conclusion, Tshisekedi’s second term is likely to be fraught with many political, economic, security and regional crises, given the complexity of the challenges and thorny issues awaiting the new government in the coming period. Meanwhile, the opposition continues to increase pressure on the ruling regime amid regional tensions between Kinshasa, Rwanda and Angola. The resulting possible escalation could push the region towards an intense conflict, with negative repercussions for the entire region in the future.&nbsp;&nbsp;

How Have Tensions in the DRC Increased After the Elections?