Dr. Mona Soliman‏‏

Indonesian President Joko Widodo concluded his two-day visit to the UAE on July 17, 2024, during which he was received by HH Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, President of the UAE, at Qasr Al Watan in Abu Dhabi, who awarded him the Order of Zayed in appreciation of his efforts in strengthening relations between the two countries. He underlined the importance of fostering bilateral ties and embarking on broader horizons to benefit the goals of both countries. Relations between Jakarta and Abu Dhabi present a role model for other countries; for the political consensus between both countries and constructive economic cooperation. The two presidents agreed to continue coordination and communication between them to consolidate cooperation in various fields, and to confront the current regional and international geopolitical challenges in the Middle East and Southeast Asia in a way that achieves the strategic interests of the two countries. 

Understanding the Dimensions of Strategic Relations between the UAE, Indonesia

Widodo’s Visit:

On 28 June 2024, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan affirmed that he was willing to work with Syrian President Bashar al-Assad to normalize relations between the two countries, after al-Assad expressed his openness to any initiative for normalization between Damascus and Ankara. This suggests that the two sides want to restart negotiations on normalization after Russian-sponsored talks began two years ago were halted due to major differences between the two sides. For Damascus, normalization hinges upon ending the Turkish military presence in northern Syria, which is a step Ankara refuses to take, since the latter claims it is combatting terrorist organizations including the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) and the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). Other than Russian pressure, the main driver for both sides in restarting talks is a shared fear about the establishment of a US-backed autonomous Kurdish entity in northern Syria. This became a matter of particular concern after it was announced that municipal elections would be held in seven districts in northeastern Syria under SDF control. If these elections take place, they would constitute a threat to Syrian and Turkish national security. Given current regional geopolitical variables, normalization talks between Ankara and Damascus are expected to be complex. The outcomes of these negotiations will have implications for security arrangements and the balance of power within Syria and across the entire Middle East.

Why Turkey’s President is Ready for Normalization with Damascus

The Kurdish Threat:

Germany’s sixtieth Munich Security Conference was held from 16 to 18 February 2024. The conference opened with a speech by UN Secretary-General António Guterres. It was attended by US Vice President Kamala Harris and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz along with more than 100 official delegations from various countries, as well as the heads of international and civil society organizations. Key topics of discussion among delegations included the war in Ukraine and the Israeli war on the Gaza Strip. Other issues included climate change, AI, irregular migration and asylum, terrorism, and the future of US-China relations.

What Are the Key Takeaways from the Munich Security Conference 2024?

A World in Turmoil:

On 2 November 2023, French President Emmanuel Macron finished his first tour of Central Asia, through which he sought to strengthen French influence in the region. Macron visited Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan and affirmed French interest in strengthening partnerships with both nations. He also assessed the countries’ stances on the Ukraine war given the special relationship both have with Russia. Macron’s tour puts France on the map of regional and international powers in the region, which has recently gained geopolitical momentum. There has been growing European interest in Central Asia amidst heightened competition between Russia, China, and Turkey to expand their influence and implement regional transport corridors to connect the landlocked region to Europe.

Obstacles to an Expanded French Presence in Central Asia

Multiple Actors:

Tensions in the relationship between Israel and Ukraine are escalating after the August 20th decision by Israel to deport dozens of Ukrainian citizens from its territories. In response, Kyiv signaled that it would terminate the visa-free agreement between the two countries and bar Israelis from visiting the Jewish holy city of Uman for celebrations of Rosh Hashanah, the Jewish New Year. These developments are merely a symptom of several latent contentious issues between Ukraine and Israel that have yet to be resolved during the past two years. If allowed to carry on,  these disputes could mean a diplomatic crisis between the two nations that will determine, in one direction or the other, the future of the Israeli-Ukrainian relationship.

Why Are Tensions Escalating Between Ukraine and Israel?

Deportation of Ukrainians:

On 27 April 2023, Turkish citizens living abroad began casting their votes for their country’s presidential and parliamentary elections, and will continue to vote over the following twelve days. The number of Turkish absentee voters is estimated to be around 3,416,000 people. Voting has begun just as the controversy over Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s health has receded. Two days after falling ill during a live TV interview, Erdoğan participated via video conference in the inauguration of a Turkish nuclear plant. This comes at a time when Turkish parties across the political spectrum are ramping up election campaigns before heading to the ballot box on 14 May 2023. These elections are the most important in Turkish history, and the international community is watching closely to see who will emerge victorious, especially given concerns about future directions for Turkey’s regional policy in light of rapid global and regional geopolitical shifts.

Divergent Candidate Platforms in the 2023 Turkish Elections

Political Polarization:

On 6 March 2023, the Nation Alliance, the six-party Turkish opposition bloc, selected Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, leader of the Republican People’s Party (CHP), as their presidential candidate. Kılıçdaroğlu will run against current Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan in the upcoming presidential elections, which will be held on 14 May 2023. This decision came after a 72-hour crisis in which Meral Akşener, head of the Good Party, which is also part of the Nation Alliance, refused to back Kılıçdaroğlu. She later reconsidered and agreed to support his candidacy. However, this situation raised doubts about the new candidate’s ability to succeed in the national presidential elections and threatened to break apart the opposition alliance. This crisis also bolstered the popularity of Erdoğan, who is doing everything he can to win in the upcoming elections.

What are the Opposition Candidate’s Chances in Turkey’s Upcoming Presidential Elections?

Kılıçdaroğlu’s Challenges:

On September 25, 2022, Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, the leader of the Republican People’s Party, Turkey’s largest opposition party, was endorsed in the upcoming Turkish presidential elections, set for June 2023, by three of his potential rivals: Mansur Yavaş, the mayor of Ankara; Ekrem İmamoğlu, the mayor of Istanbul; and Meral Akşener, the leader of the opposition Good Party. 

Will the Turkish Opposition Agree on a Candidate for the Upcoming Presidential Elections?

Diverging Agendas:

In mid-August, at the opening ceremony of the International Army Games 2022 in Moscow, Russian Vladimir Putin declared his country’s readiness to provide all types of advanced weapons to its allies and partners and to conduct joint military drills with them. This followed Russia’s successful launch of the Iranian Khayyam satellite, which Russia says is intended for civilian purposes, while Washington has called it a military satellite intended for spying on Middle Eastern countries, especially Israel. In parallel with this, US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan revealed that Moscow has a deal to purchase advanced Iranian drones to use in its war with Ukraine, which has raised American concerns about the prospects for military cooperation between Russia and Iran and its implications for the Ukrainian war and the Middle East.

Dr. Mona Soliman‏‏

Dr. Mona Soliman‏‏

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