InterRegional for Strategic Analysis

InterRegional for Strategic Analysis held a panel discussion with its experts and researchers entitled, "The Outlook in Ukraine: How Will the War End?" The panel focused on the stances of different actors regarding the war in Ukraine, as well as military developments, various short-term scenarios for how the war might progress, and what the aftermath of the war could look like. The key points from the panel include the following:

How Will the War End? (Panel Discussion)

The Outlook in Ukraine:

For decades, China has been a leading industrial hub for companies around the world. However, the Chinese economy has recently experienced various crises, including trade disputes with the US, fallout from the COVID-19 pandemic such as lockdown measures and disruptions to manufacturing operations and supply chains, rapprochement with Russia, and oversight policies in certain manufacturing sectors. This has raised concerns among major Western companies operating in China, many of which have sought to leave China and look for alternatives elsewhere. Other companies hope to pursue a China Plus One policy to diversify their supply chains.

Will India Succeed in Drawing Western Companies away from China?

New Delhi’s Opportunities:

The Ukrainian war dealt a strategic blow to Western countries, especially Europe. It has shown Europe what it means to be under pressure from Russia and China, which have tried to exploit European weaknesses for geopolitical gain, especially with regards to energy and the future of the global economy. There is a near-total consensus in Europe regarding the need become more independent from China across the board. In October 2022, a paper produced by the European External Action Service urged EU member states to pursue "realistic and robust engagement" with China. It also called for cooperation with the US in order to bolster the EU’s security situation and advocated for diversifying supply chains beyond China. In doing so, Europe hopes to avoid repeating the same mistakes as with its overreliance on Russia in the energy sector.

Why is Europe Rethinking its Relations with China?

The Ukrainian Lesson:

The visit of Air Marshall Martin Sampson, the British Chief of the Defense Staff Senior Advisor for the Middle East and North Africa, to Libya at the end of September, which coincided with the anchoring of the Royal Navy warship HMS Albion at Tripoli’s Abu Sitta naval base, demonstrates Britain’s growing involvement in Middle East crises of late. This has also clearly manifested in Britain’s many moves in pursuit of a resolution to the Libyan political crisis, its active engagement with threats in the Arabian Sea related to the crisis in Yemen, its strident opposition to the Iranian nuclear program and adoption of escalating measures against Iran, and in the turn towards relocating the British Embassy to Jerusalem. Such moves demonstrate a "Return of Britain" to the region. These moves seek to strengthen Britain’s influence, especially following Brexit, as London attempts to exert its presence apart from Europe on the world stage.

How to Interpret Britain’s Current Involvement in the Middle East?

The Brexit Effect:

For many years, the member states of the European Union relied upon stable energy supplies. There was little interest in having generators to supplement the energy supply for extended periods in the event of an outage.  But with recent geopolitical changes in the region, as well as Europe’s position against the Russian intervention in Ukraine and the earlier opposition of some countries to the completion of the Nord Stream 2 Pipeline, Europe has come under Russian pressure due to its leverage over gas. Since the beginning of 2021, this has embroiled the continent in an ongoing energy crisis.

Is the Telecommunications Sector Collapsing as a Result of the Energy Crisis in Europe?

Network at Risk:

On September 26, 2022, InterRegional for Strategic Analysis organized a panel discussion, entitled, "The Macron Doctrine: How can we understand France’s strategy for the Gulf?" featuring Dr. Jean-Loup Samaan, a Senior Research Fellow at the Middle East Institute of the National University of Singapore and Associate Research Fellow at the French Institute of International Relations. The goal of the panel was to evaluate France’s policy, as a middle power, toward the Gulf region during the presidency of Emmanuel Macron.

How Can We Understand France’s Strategy for the Gulf? (Panel Discussion)

The Macron Doctrine:

The COVID-19 pandemic pushed the global real estate market towards record numbers trending towards recession, due to a confluence of extremely low interest rates, a severe shortage of homes for sale, and shifts in household spending. But with the gradual recovery from the effects of the pandemic and the emergence of new economic challenges, the world saw significant inflation in commodity and real estate prices, alongside an increase in debt and mortgage rates. In response, central banks around the world turned to quantitative tightening to contain runaway inflation and raise lending costs. This has led to higher mortgage financing costs, which have negatively impacted real estate markets around the world in different ways. Policymakers are now watching fluctuations in real estate markets very carefully, as real estate is a main source of household wealth and a major multiplier of economic activity in any country.

Why is the Real Estate Crisis Worsening Globally?

A Turbulent Market:

On September 24, rumors spread on social media about a coup in China and the overthrow of President Xi Jinping. The rumors were debunked when the Chinese president appeared on state television on September 27, visiting an exhibit at the Beijing Exhibition Hall, entitled, "Forging Ahead in the New Era," showcasing the achievements of China’s new era. While this particular rumor was dispelled by Xi’s appearance, periodic rumors emerge involving political infighting or coup attempts in China, which some attribute to China’s opaque regime. The rumor of a coup against the Chinese president, his absence from the scene, and the failure to deny or confirm the rumor’s veracity for several days, raises discussion of China’s closed regime and how Chinese authorities control information about their country’s domestic affairs in a way that sometimes makes it difficult to follow and confirm exactly what is happening.

Why is it Hard to Track What is Happening in China?

A Closed-Off Regime:

Climate change is a global phenomenon from the point of view of its geographical spread and accompanying effects. Although Africa is not one of the parties most responsible for this phenomenon—it produces 2-3% of global greenhouse gas emissions—it is one of the parties most harmed by the negative effects and repercussions of climate change at various levels, in a manner that directly affects the reality of nation states and the African continent’s aspirations related to Agenda 2063. Africa has a promising opportunity to crystallize its position and demands regarding climate change, especially since Egypt is hosting COP27, the Conference of the Parties that are signatories to the UN Convention on Climate Change, in Sharm El-Sheikh this coming November.

InterRegional for Strategic Analysis

InterRegional for Strategic Analysis

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