InterRegional for Strategic Analysis

The COVID-19 pandemic and accompanying waves of lockdowns have had many negative repercussions for the global economy, especially with regard to the decline in growth rates, rising levels of inflation, and unprecedented levels of global debt. The most important projected trends for the global economy in the second quarter of 2021 are as follows:

Ten Projected Trends for the Global Economy in 2021

A Race to Recovery:

There have recently been increased tensions between regional and international powers engaged in the Syrian arena, as each tries to gain control over Syrian border crossings with neighboring countries, or internal crossings between areas under the control of different groups. This becomes clear from examining the recent positions taken by Russia, Turkey, and the US.

Competing to Control Syrian Border Crossings

Potential Collision:

ISIS has lost control of many areas of Syria and Iraq, and has been unable to carry out major terrorist operations within Europe and the US, while also suffering a significant decline in its number of foreign fighters. In the wake of this, ISIS has begun to establish a strategic unit for targeting Western countries which utilizes a "hit-and-run" approach to carry out surprise operations against Western countries and interests, through operations including stabbings, explosions, hit-and-run vehicle attacks, and other methods with broad effects but limited scope. These operations require lower human and material costs than other operations they have previously carried out.

Aspects of the ISIS strategy to target Western countries

A "hit-and-run" approach:

On 28 March 2021, the Saudi Minister of Industry and Mineral Resources and chairman of the Board of Directors of the Saudi Export Development Authority, Bandar Alkhorayef, launched the "Made in Saudi" program. This program aims to strengthen product development and contribute to establishing a brand identity for local industry. In November 2020, Alkhorayef previously led a bootcamp in Riyadh for designing the brand identity for the program, with the slogan "Design your country’s industrial brand," in which nine men and women designers from the Kingdom participated.

Saudi Arabia Makes Concerted Effort to Promote National Products

Maximizing Returns:

In conjunction with the Libyan House of Representatives’ vote of confidence, by a majority of members present, for the Government of National Unity (GNU) headed by Abdul Hamid Dbeibah, armed clashes have escalated among some militias deployed in the capital of Tripoli. These militias are now turning into a major impediment to the success of the transitional phase. On the other hand, there are many catalysts that may support the position of the new executive authority to address all the challenges, chief of which is the spread of these militias in the west of the country.

Prospects to put a brake on armed escalation and ensure the success of the transitional phase in Libya

Militia War:

Plentiful data indicate that ISIS has been working to consolidate its bases in Niger, where it has recently launched several bloody attacks killing dozens of civilians. The most notable of these was its operation in the village of Tillia, in the southwest of the country, in March 2021, which killed more than 141 civilians, including men, women, and children. ISIS members also stole nearly 5,000 camels and more than 20,000 cattle and sheep, along with many vehicles.

The future of the ISIS crescent on the African continent

Solidifying Their Position:

Most African and Latin American developing countries are plagued by numerous economic issues, and slow rates of vaccination and unclear prospects for economic recovery are fueling political and social problems. The following are the main projected trends for developing countries in the second quarter of 2021: 

Main projected trends for developing countries in 2021

Persistent Crises:

The cyber capabilities of the Lebanese militia Hezbollah are growing, as evidenced in a report late last January from cybersecurity firm ClearSky. The report disclosed that a group of Hezbollah-affiliated hackers, under the name Lebanese Cedar, carried out a global spying campaign. Intelligence reports also revealed that the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has established a new cybersecurity unit within Hezbollah’s counterintelligence apparatus. Hezbollah’s current effort can be understood as enhancing its cyber capabilities in order to increase the militia’s ability to easily spy on various Lebanese state institutions. Hezbollah is expected to attempt to use its growing power in the cyber realm in order to carry out cyber attacks on various countries in the region. In this context, Tehran’s creation and oversight of a new intelligence unit within Hezbollah comes as part of Iran’s effort to tighten its grip on Lebanon.

InterRegional for Strategic Analysis

InterRegional for Strategic Analysis

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