Dr. Diana Galeeva‏‏

The death of the former President of Iran Ebrahim Raisi might have many implications at the regional, international level, in addition to its main ally – Russia. Between Russia and Iran, clearly there are positive dynamics in defence and military collaboration, especially since 2022, in addition to growing cultural, educational exchanges and economic ties, largely due to both being under unprecedented global sanctions.

How Will the Iranian President’s Incident Affect Moscow-Tehran Relations?

Raisi’s Death:

In the recent Russian presidential elections, Vladimir Putin cemented his hold on power and won another six-year term. A few days earlier, on 29 February 2024, in Putin’s annual address to the Federal Assembly, he emphasized that Russia has long-standing good relations with Arab states and is seeking new points of contact with "our Arab friends" in order to deepen a wide range of partnerships. This article evaluates and suggests future areas for Russian-GCC cooperation as well as explores the key points of the Russian president’s address to the Federal Assembly. The article also compares Russia’s vision for 2030 with its GCC counterparts, including Saudi Vision 2030, the UAE’s Abu Dhabi Economic Vision 2030 and Dubai Economic Agenda (D33), Qatar National Vision 2030, Kuwait 2035 ("New Kuwait"), the Bahrain Economic Vision 2030, and Oman Vision 2040. Moreover, it explores potential avenues for building bilateral relations leading up to 2030 based on the goals these countries have articulated, and consider opportunities for partners to pursue program alignment as part of a "smart power" strategy to achieve domestic objectives while further boosting bilateral relations. Thus, these strategic vision documents that set forth 2030 development plans in both Russia and in the Gulf could serve to strengthen international dialogue and cooperation.

What Potential Collaboration Areas Exist between Russia and the GCC?

Vision 2030 and Beyond:

 Last Friday, in the middle of the holy month of Ramadan, Moscow’s Crocus City Hall was attacked by men in camouflage, who opened fire and reportedly threw explosive devices inside the concert venue. The attack, which killed 137 people and injured approximately 100 others, has been claimed by ISIL’s Afghan branch (the Islamic State in Khorasan Province, or ISKP/ISIS-K). Western media have largely gone along with this version of events and attributed the incident to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s "oppression of Muslims by Russia" in recent years, according to an article. The article quoted Michael Kugelman, director of the South Asia Institute at the Washington-based Wilson Center, as saying that "Russian foreign policy has been one big red flag for ISIS [ISIL]," particularly "the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, Russian actions in Chechnya, Moscow’s close relationship with the Syrian and Iranian governments, and especially the military campaigns that Russia has waged against ISIS fighters in Syria and—through Wagner Group mercenaries—in parts of Africa." To what extent do these actions relate to ISIL? Does this argument really reflect current realities, and most importantly, will this recent act of terror claimed by ISIL imperil Russian ties with the Muslim world, which have recently grown in various ways?

How Will Russia’s Relations with the Islamic World Evolve?

Moscow Attack:

On 6 December 2023, Vladimir Putin visited the UAE and Saudi Arabia over the course of a single day as part of the Russian president’s first visit to the Gulf since 2019. Before his visit, Russian media drew attention to a Bloomberg story ("Putin Plans Visit to Gulf in Wake of OPEC+ Deal on Output Cuts"). This article had suggested that Putin's upcoming visit to Saudi Arabia reflected the failure of US efforts to isolate Russia. Since the Ukraine war began, Putin has made few international trips. For example, he did not attend other recent global summits such as BRICS, which was held in South Africa in August, or the G20 Summit held in India in September. What does Putin’s recent visit to the Gulf mean for global geopolitical transformations?

What is the Geopolitical Significance of Putin’s Visit to the Gulf?

A Strategy of Diversification:

GCC countries can count this past November as a successful month of state-branding mega-events. On 28 November 2023, Saudi Arabia won the right to host Expo 2030, and on 30 November, COP28 (the Conference of the Parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change) began in Expo City Dubai in the UAE. This article aims to explore the concept of state-branding through these and similar events. What do Gulf countries aim to achieve with this strategy? Have they in fact achieved what they hoped? How effective has this branding concept been for the GCC states?

Why Are GCC Countries Prioritizing State Branding?

Strategic Importance:

In recent weeks, Saudi Arabia has received attention for its effective use of soft power. On Monday 23 October, it launched the Esports World Cup, a high-profile video game tournament that will be held annually in Riyadh beginning in summer 2024. The following week in October, Saudi Arabia was chosen as the host nation for the 2034 FIFA World Cup, after being the only country to submit its bid by FIFA’s deadline. The Saudi Pro League, a Saudi-based football league, has emerged as the highest-paying league outside of Europe. It has poured hundreds of millions of euros into transfers of football legends such as Portugal’s Cristiano Ronaldo, Brazil’s Neymar da Silva, and France’s Karim Benzema and N’Golo Kanté. Following the Saudi takeover of Newcastle United, staff morale has improved, and the women’s team has been made fully professional. 

How Is Saudi Arabia Trying to Strengthen its Global Influence?

Embracing Soft Power:

Russia’s response to the recent Israel-Palestine war has been cautious, initially focusing on maintaining relations with both sides. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov stated that Moscow has long-lasting ties with the Palestinians, including Hamas. Nonetheless, he also indicated that Russia has "a lot in common" with Israel, including the fact that many Israelis are former Russian citizens. Peskov said: "Therefore, we maintain relations with both sides of this conflict." Russia was also predictably quick to blame the West for events in Israel-Palestine. On Monday, after talks with Arab League Secretary-General Ahmed Aboul Gheit, Sergey Lavrov condemned the recent violence. Lavrov stressed that the West was being short-sighted if it thought that simply condemning attacks against Israel without solving the Palestinian issue would secure an Israeli victory.

What Does Russia’s Anti-US Stance in the Israel-Palestine War Mean?

Cautious Calculus:

At a recent panel on strategic studies at Oxford, high-level representatives from Baltic states discussed the impact of the Ukraine war on their region. I had been sitting and thinking "What about the Middle East?" since my focus is on the GCC. How has the current geopolitical landscape shaped ties between Estonia and the GCC? I asked an Estonian envoy (whom I can’t identify by name due to the Chatham House Rule) how their government views strategic ties with the GCC, and what can be learned from these relations. However, the Estonian official’s response was limited. They told me only that Estonian relations with the Middle East were aligned with core EU strategic objectives and priorities. I have continued to be intrigued by the three Baltic small countries, which at least in size are similar to the smaller GCC countries, and by how the former have adopted "bandwagoning" strategies with the EU. Meanwhile, GCC countries maintain very close ties with Western states, although they have increasingly adopted more proactive nationalist policies, such as Saudi First or UAE First. Why are countries with otherwise similar capacities choosing such different paths, and how do these paths differ? What can we learn from these partnerships? What are the key objectives of each of these countries, and how might the Ukraine war shape the future of these relations?

What Factors Drive the GCC-Baltic Relations?

Unusual Allies:

Russia and Iran have become increasingly interdependent as a result of mutual efforts to overcome Western sanctions. This has bolstered already strong relations between the two countries, which signed a deal to finance and build the Rasht-Astara railway, a crucial transport corridor linking India, Iran, Russia, Azerbaijan, and other states via railway networks and sea routes. Some argue that this railway will rival the Suez Canal as a key global trade route. VTB, Russia’s second-largest bank, previously opened a representative office in Iran, as the "anti-sanctions alliance grows." On the security front, Iran has become Russia’s key arms supplier, and has provided Russia with hundreds of drones, artillery, and tanks since mid-2022. What are the pillars of Russia-Iran relations? What are the ramifications of these developments for regional neighbors, and where might this cooperation lead in the future?

Dr. Diana Galeeva‏‏

Dr. Diana Galeeva‏‏

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