Dr Hamdy Abdelrahman Hassan

If we could take a time machine into the future, we could visit the Afrotopian world set forth in the African Union’s Agenda 2063. We would be able to behold open borders, and a world in which people, capital, goods, and services move freely across the continent, from Cairo to Cape Town, and from Dakar to Nairobi. In this same future, the old continent—Europe—struggles with the rise of an anti-immigrant right that raises alarms about the threats of irregular migration and terrorism in the borderless Schengen area. Meanwhile, the African continent of 1.2 billion people has freed itself from the borders drawn by colonialism, and has set out to build an African Schengen area. The once-abstract dream of African unity became closer to a reality when the African Union took the bold step of offering a common African passport. The first holders of this new document were two African leaders: Rwandan President Paul Kagame and the late Chadian President Idriss Déby.

Will African Countries Succeed in Lifting Internal Movement Restrictions?

An African Schengen:

Russia previously pursued its strategic objectives in Africa and other regions of the world via a private military company known as the Wagner Group. This enabled the Kremlin to distance itself from the actions of Russian mercenaries in African countries such as Mali. Russia would always claim that the Wagner Group was not under the direct oversight of the Russian Ministry of Defense. However, since the killing of Wagner founder Yevgeny Prigozhin in August 2023, there has been a fundamental shift in Russia’s approach. Russian authorities have sought to recruit numerous volunteers to join the Africa Corps, which will replace the Wagner mercenaries who operated as a private military company in Africa. Russia hopes that this corps will grow to 20,000 members during 2024, both from new recruits and former Wagner mercenaries. According to official Russian sources, the Africa Corps will be subject to the oversight of the Russian Ministry of Defense. The Central African Republic (CAR) will be the regional base for Russian involvement in Africa, especially in Burkina Faso, Libya, Mali, and Niger. Around 100 Russian soldiers recently arrived in Burkina Faso to provide security to President Ibrahim Traoré.

How Africa Corps Bolsters Russian Influence

A Wagner Alternative:

There’s an African proverb that says: "If you want to go fast, go alone. But if you want to go far, go together." That seemed to be Italy’s logic as it sought to convince African leaders to join forces under the Mattei Plan. The plan is named after the late Enrico Mattei, who founded the Italian energy company Eni. In the 1950s, Mattei called on Italy to support north African governments in developing their natural resources. A long-awaited Italy-Africa summit was held on 28 January 2024 with 25 African leaders. During the opening ceremony, the Mattei Plan for Africa was officially unveiled as an ambitious project to strengthen ties on energy supply, with Eni at the forefront of these endeavors. During the UN Climate Change Conference (COP28) in Dubai last December, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni stated that the plan aimed to "build mutually beneficial partnerships and support the energy security of African and Mediterranean nations."

What is Mattei’s Objective from Reengaging with Africa?

Bolstering Influence:

InterRegional for Strategic Analysis

Africa is known for its abundant resources and has the potential to become a promising new hub for global supply chains of technology-intensive industries such as automobiles and mobile phones. As geopolitical events and tensions have disrupted global supply chains, manufacturers have sought to geographically diversify these supply chains. The following infographic outlines how Africa could become the new focus of global supply chains. A PDF version of the infographic can be viewed here.

Can Africa Become a Key Player in Technology-Intensive Industries?

Critical Wealth:

Dr. Mohammad Salami‏‏

Hamas’s 7 October attack on Israel has been met with many different reactions from the international community. Given divergent stances on the Palestinian cause and ties with Israel and/or Palestine, countries and regional blocs have variously condemned the Gaza conflict or supported Israel’s right to eliminate Hamas. Within the African Union (AU), member states had several different responses to the conflict based on the traditional, historic, economic, and geopolitical interests of those countries.

How Have African Leaders Reacted to the War in Gaza?

Divergent Responses:

InterRegional for Strategic Analysis held a panel discussion entitled "Driving Forces: Understanding the Recent Military Coups in Africa," featuring Dr. Samuel Ramani, a tutor in international relations at the University of Oxford and associate fellow at the Royal United Services Institute.

Understanding the Recent Military Coups in Africa (Panel Discussion)

Driving Forces:

It is clear that rapprochement is occurring among the new military elites that have come to power in the Sahel, especially in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger. This marks a new stage in a series of geopolitical shifts in the region over the past three years. These ties strengthen the influence of the new military regimes at both the domestic and foreign policy levels, while dealing a major blow to French and Western clout in the Sahel and West Africa. French and Western influence in the region has markedly declined as other countries such as Russia have taken on larger roles in the region as they try to fill the current power vacuum. These shifts have been met with both governmental and popular support in "coup belt" countries, with the exception of Gabon. This will pave the way for expanding the strategic clout of Russia and other countries at their rivals’ expense.

Understanding the Rapprochement Among the Sahel’s New Military Elites

The "Coup Belt":

Dr. Mahmoud Zakaria‏‏

In recent years, Kenya has sought to become more involved in maintaining international peace and security. This engagement has extended beyond the East African region or even the African continent. In July 2023, the Kenyan minister of foreign and diaspora affairs announced that the country was ready to lead a multinational police force in Haiti of 1,000 policemen who would help train the Haitian police on restoring normalcy and protecting strategic installations. Kenya plans to send its team during the next few weeks to evaluate the operational requirements for the mission. This decision follows an urgent appeal by Haitian Prime Minister Ariel Henry in October 2022 for a specialized armed force of sufficient size to help stop criminal acts by armed gangs. These groups have been more active in Haiti since the assassination of former President Jovenel Moïse on 7 July 2021. Gangs control over 80 percent of the capital, Port-au-Prince, which has resulted in a rise in murder, rape, and kidnapping of citizens. Kenya’s July 2023 proposal was backed by the Haitian government and by UN Secretary-General António Guterres.

Understanding Kenya’s Growing Involvement in International Security

Nairobi’s Diplomacy:

Dr. Hamdy Bashir‏‏

Indo-African relations are growing closer and closer, a development that rests to a great extent on an energetic military diplomacy. Between March 21 and 29 of this year, India organized AFINDEX 2023, a joint Indo-African training exercise that included 24 African countries and a sequel to the first AFINDEX held in 2019. These efforts are expected to lead to stronger political partnerships with African countries, broader security cooperation, a stronger military presence, increased weapons purchases and an attempt to counterbalance the Chinese maritime presence. But they face challenges as well: the growing Chinese economic and military presence, regional opposition to New Delhi, and the difficulty of funding maritime expansion.

Africa

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