Dr. Diana Galeeva‏‏

The war in Ukraine has shaken all aspects of the international order, including well-established alliances and powers that underpin broader global dynamics. GCC-Russia relations have attracted the attention of experts, since this will have direct repercussions for crucial spheres such as the energy market. Most discussions of GCC-Russia relations have focused on bilateral trade of commodities including oil, how this alliance could help both sides overcome Western sanctions However, limited consideration has been given thus far to the role of culture as a soft power tool in fostering bilateral relations between Russia and the GCC. Could culture emerge as an alternate path towards bilateral dialogue? How can both sides draw upon cultural connections to further bilateral cooperation in economic and military spheres?

Soft Power in GCC-Russia Relations Since the Ukraine War

Cultural Bridges:

From 7-10 December, Moscow hosted the XVIII International Muslim Forum, entitled "Justice and Moderation: Divine Principles of World Order." The forum aimed to foster dialogue with the Muslim world and was jointly organized by the International Muslim Forum, the Religious Board of Muslims of the Russian Federation, and the Moscow Islamic Institute. It came at a crucial time for Russia’s Muslim community (umma), which this year celebrated the 1100th anniversary of the official adoption of Islam in 922 by the peoples of Volga Bulgaria.

Bolstering Russia’s Religious Ties with the GCC

Spiritual Diplomacy:

Dr. Samuel Ramani

On 9 December, White House National Security Council Coordinator for Strategic Communications John Kirby warned that Russia had offered Iran "an unprecedented level of military and technical support," which had turned the relationship into a "full-fledged defense partnership." Kirby claimed that Iran planned to establish a joint production line for drones in Russia, while other reports circulated that Russia intended to export Su-35 jets to Iran and train Iranian pilots to operate them. These dire warnings reflected US alarm about Russia’s use of Iranian Shahed 136 and Mohajer-6 UAVs in Ukraine and its potential acquisition of Iranian ballistic missiles.

How Russia and Iran are Strengthening their Military Relationship

A Defensive Alliance:

Dr. Hamdy Bashir‏‏

A controversy is brewing in Western foreign policy circles over the expansion of the economic presence of the Russian military company the Wagner Group in Africa. Many reports have pointed to this increasing role. On December 2, the Belgian Belga News Agency published a report on the involvement of the Russian military group Wagner in diamond trading and smuggling operations from the Central African Republic to Belgium, which raises questions about the extent of the economic expansion of the Wagner group in the African continent.

Why is Wagner's Empire Expanding into Africa?

Investing in Fragility:

InterRegional for Strategic Analysis

The Ukraine war has been a global test for Russian weapons, as the war, which Moscow envisioned to be a quick military operation, drags on. This raises questions about the war’s impact on the position of Russian weapons in the global arms market, and whether the difficulties faced by Russian weapons on the battlefield will affect their global reputation, and thus the volume of world demand for Russian weapons and Moscow’s military exports, especially since the war has become a struggle over weapons effectiveness between Russia and Western nations, which have provided Kiev with a huge amount of weapons.

Is the Ukraine War Affecting Russia’s Place in the Global Weapons Market?

Operational Effectiveness:

During the nine months since Russia invaded Ukraine, the Kremlin has continued to maintain an active presence in the MENA region. During the special session of the UN General Assembly held on 2 March, 14 MENA countries voted in support of a resolution that denounced Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and demanded the withdrawal of the Russian military. Meanwhile, one MENA country voted against the resolution, three abstained and one did not vote. Regional actors have primarily adopted a policy of hedging or "balancing adversaries," which was Moscow’s policy in most similar situations prior to the Ukraine war. Russia’s approach now appears to be paying dividends in the form of a relatively neutral response from the MENA region following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. As Hussein Ibish of the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington recently argued, "most of the developing world in Asia and Africa, including the Middle East, has not viewed the Ukraine war as the kind of definitive, transformational moment in international relations that the West does." He added that these countries have instead prioritized their national interests. This is case with Saudi Arabia, which has adopted what Kristin Smith Diwan called a "new nationalist foreign policy."

How Russia’s Middle East Policy Has Evolved after the Ukraine War

Different Scenarios:

For many years, the member states of the European Union relied upon stable energy supplies. There was little interest in having generators to supplement the energy supply for extended periods in the event of an outage.  But with recent geopolitical changes in the region, as well as Europe’s position against the Russian intervention in Ukraine and the earlier opposition of some countries to the completion of the Nord Stream 2 Pipeline, Europe has come under Russian pressure due to its leverage over gas. Since the beginning of 2021, this has embroiled the continent in an ongoing energy crisis.

Is the Telecommunications Sector Collapsing as a Result of the Energy Crisis in Europe?

Network at Risk:

Asmaa El Safty‏‏

In a televised speech on September 21, Russian President Putin called for a partial mobilization and the drafting of 300,000 Russian reservists in order to strengthen the Russian army’s battlefront capabilities. These moves came after the Russian army incurred heavy losses in several areas of eastern Ukraine, particularly Kharkiv—not to mention the Ukrainian army’s success in freeing many of its POWs from the Russian Army.

What Comes After President Putin Announces Partial Military Mobilization?

Leadership Confusion:

Dr. Mona Soliman‏‏

In mid-August, at the opening ceremony of the International Army Games 2022 in Moscow, Russian Vladimir Putin declared his country’s readiness to provide all types of advanced weapons to its allies and partners and to conduct joint military drills with them. This followed Russia’s successful launch of the Iranian Khayyam satellite, which Russia says is intended for civilian purposes, while Washington has called it a military satellite intended for spying on Middle Eastern countries, especially Israel. In parallel with this, US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan revealed that Moscow has a deal to purchase advanced Iranian drones to use in its war with Ukraine, which has raised American concerns about the prospects for military cooperation between Russia and Iran and its implications for the Ukrainian war and the Middle East.

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